For more than three decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has relied on a military strategy that combines multidimensional deterrence (conventional, asymmetric and even nuclear capabilities) with ‘proxy warfare’ on several fronts, notably along Israel’s borders and in countries where the US holds strategic interests. While the 2010s, deeply marked by the ‘Arab Springs’ uprisings and subsequent conflicts, had ushered in a golden age for Iran’s network of like-minded ‘proxies’, the year 2024 witnessed the latter’s unprecedented hammering by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). This Security & Strategy revisits the progressive shoring of the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ in the successive context of the Afghan, Lebanese, Iraqi and Syrian wars. It highlights how these conflicts have at the same time generated opportunities and challenges for this specific strategy. Ultimately, it tries to assess to what extent this ‘axis’ is truly degraded and subsequently to discern what comes next for the balance of power between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
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Research lines: Middle East and North Africa; Non-Arab Muslim World
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Security & Strategy 155
A Broken ‘Axis of Resistance’?
Reflecting on Iran’s Proxy Warfare Strategy