While NATO appeared to have been “awakened by the worst of shocks” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, threats against Greenland in January 2026 revived doubts about the Alliance’s cohesion. In March 2026, the interception by Allies of four ballistic missiles over Turkish territory reaffirmed NATO’s central role in Euro-Atlantic security, while also revealing the ambiguities of a transatlantic relationship in which the US remains the primary guarantor of European security even as it pursues strategic priorities that may at times expose its Allies.
These developments reinforce the prospect of a ‘NATO 3.0’, characterised by a more conditional US commitment and the need for a stronger European pillar, as the war in Ukraine continues and the risk of aggression against a NATO member becomes increasingly plausible within the next two to three years. Beyond the level of defence spending, the credibility of this rebalancing will depend on several decisive shifts enabling Europeans to assume a greater share of the defence of the continent, while transforming the Alliance in a lasting way without breaking it.
This e-Note is based on the article: HOORICKX E., “OTAN 3.0 : quels choix pour l’Europe face au nouveau paradigme ?”, Diplomatie, no. 138 (March-April 2026): 53-56.
Research lines: Europe ; Security and defence architecture ; Transatlantic relations
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