This e-Note analyses the attempted Iranian ballistic strike on Diego Garcia as an act of coercive signalling with significant strategic implications rather than a credible attempt at destruction. Drawing on the conditions of the launch, the uncertainty surrounding the system used and the operational context of the US-Israeli campaign, it shows that the event primarily reflects a logic of demonstrating reach and resilience while seeking to erode established analytical frameworks regarding Iran’s ballistic capabilities. The e-Note also highlights the growing compression of strategic theatres, whereby an event in the Middle East now produces direct effects on European security, particularly in terms of missile defence, competition for interceptors and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure. Finally, it calls for a systemic adaptation of European responses, integrating industrial, operational and political-strategic dimensions in an increasingly interconnected threat environment.
Download e-Note 95Research lines: Defence capabilities and technologies; Middle East and North Africa; Non-Arab Muslim World
Source image: Copyright U.S. Missile Defense Agency (Department of Defence, photo by Leah Garton)
e-Note 95
Reassessing Strategic Distance:
Iran’s Long-Range Missile Signalling
and Its Implications